More Inventory, Timid Buyers, So Why Are Prices Still This High?

Seattle’s housing market is doing something that feels counterintuitive…

—There are many more homes for sale than last year.

—Buyers aren’t excited.

—Listings are sitting longer with more price reductions.

Yet, despite all this, prices still hover around all-time highs across Seattle and King County.

If that feels confusing, you are not alone. Here are the five reasons home prices remain stubbornly high in this “slow” Seattle market.

1. Sellers Are Locked In and Refuse to Sell Below Their Mental Price

When demand softens, it’s easy to assume prices will slide in tandem. But prices only fall when motivated sellers outnumber motivated buyers—and that simply isn’t the shape of Seattle’s market right now.

A big reason is the type of inventory we’re getting. Most of today’s new listings come from people who are:

—Testing the market
—Relocating for work or family
—Selling new or nearly finished construction

These sellers aren’t entering the market underwater. They’re entering with patience. If a home doesn’t sell quickly, many owners simply pivot:

—Pull the listing and try again in the spring
—Rent the home out for a year or two
—Make a few strategic improvements and reset their plan

That behavior keeps a surprisingly firm floor under pricing. You can have a slower, softer market without having a cheaper one.

Sellers Have a “Mental Price” They Won’t Go Below

The patience above is powered by psychology. Sellers are people with emotions, financial anchors, and a strong aversion to selling “below their number.” That number is usually tied to something sticky: the 2021–2022 peak, the highest comp from last spring, or their own over-inflated purchase price if they bought too high or too recently. Dropping below that threshold often feels worse than not moving at all.

And behind that psychology sits a structural force: the lock-in effect.

A huge share of homeowners still hold 2–3% mortgages. Swapping a 2.5% payment for a 6–7% payment makes trading up feel like going backward. Unless life forces the issue, staying put often feels like the rational choice. As of 2025, more homeowners are moving—because of job changes, growing families, or fatigue from waiting for “the perfect rate”—but the lock-in effect hasn’t disappeared. It’s still removing thousands of would-be sellers from the market.

The Result: A Quiet Gridlock

So inventory rises, but not the “motivated” kind. We’re not seeing distressed sellers, panic-driven price cuts, or people dumping homes. Instead, we’re seeing elective listings from owners who feel little pressure to discount. Every household that chooses to wait, rent their home, or try again next season is one less motivated seller in the data, and that missing supply props up prices even as buyers tread more cautiously.

One final nuance: the price metrics only move when sales happen. Homes that don’t sell don’t show up in price data; they only show up in inventory. So rising inventory without rising seller urgency does far less to push prices down than most buyers expect.

2. Buyers Are Timid, Not Gone

On the other side, buyers are not rushing in the way they did in 2021, or even 2024. They are more careful. They want more information. They negotiate harder and are more willing to walk away now that the sense of urgency has died down.

But, they are not totally gone.

When the right home comes on the market, it still gets attention, and in many cases multiple offers. We are seeing this most clearly in:

—Homes updated within the last 5 years

—Properties that are walkable to strong arterials or light rail corridors

—Well-laid-out single-family homes in the $1M–$1.8M range

—Homes with backyards and 4+ bedrooms in strong school zones

These homes still solve real lifestyle problems for people. They shorten commutes, add bedrooms, create work-from-home space, or land buyers in the school district they need. Those problems do not go away just because interest rates are higher.

That is why the “best” inventory is still trading very close to peak pricing.

3. High Fixed Costs Keep the Floor Under Prices

Another big reason prices are so sticky is that the fixed costs of housing keep climbing across the board.

—Rents are up roughly 30 percent since 2020 in many Seattle neighborhoods

—Insurance costs are far higher than they were a few years ago

—Property taxes adjust up with higher assessed values

—Builders are dealing with elevated labor and material costs

All of this makes truly “cheap” housing unlikely, even when demand cools. The overarching incentive structure that would drive prices markedly lower simply does not exist in the current marketplace.

4. Yes, We Are Still at or Near All-Time Highs

Across Seattle, median prices have been remarkably sticky. In several neighborhoods, they have pushed higher through 2024 and into 2025. Even with more inventory on the market, prices are not giving back much ground.

If you look at Case-Shiller indexes or King County median closed prices, the market is still hovering within shouting distance of the all-time peak.

This is exactly what you would expect in a market where people would rather stay put than sell at a discount, and where many of the would-be sellers are still locked in by low-rate mortgages.

5. Seasonality Is Still the Most Reliable Force in Seattle Real Estate

At this point, waiting until 2025 makes sense for both buyers and sellers. Buyers want clarity. Sellers want a cleaner runway and a more predictable spring market.

But here is the catch for buyers: seasonality is undefeated, even in years that do not feel “strong.” Seattle’s spring price surge shows up almost every single year, no matter what is happening with interest rates, stock markets, or tech hiring.

When you look at the last several years, you see the same pattern repeat over and over again:

*2025 is projected based on early data, current pending listings, and what we know about upcoming supply.

The consistency is hard to ignore. Even in years that feel uncertain, we still see a 10–15 percent climb from winter to late spring.

That is why buying in January, February, or March can quietly be one of the smartest moves a Seattle buyer makes. The market does not have to “boom” in 2026 for that timing to pay off. You are simply getting in ahead of the usual seasonal jump.

In a city where a $100,000 spring increase has become normal, being early can save you a meaningful amount of money over the long run. But beware, others are catching on to this. March is the new April, February is the new March. The early bird gets the worm metaphor becomes more important every year.

What This Means If You Are Thinking About Buying

You will likely have more choices and more time to think through them than you did in 2021. You can negotiate more thoughtfully. You can do a pre-inspection. You can be more selective about layout, location, and long-term livability.

What you probably will not have is a bargain-bin market.

Homes with strong fundamentals are still going to command premium prices, especially as we move from winter into spring. If you want to lean into the seasonal discount, being ready to move in January, February, or March is key.

What This Means If You Are Thinking About Selling

Do not assume the headlines mean your home is worth less. A slower market changes the experience of selling, not necessarily the outcome.

Preparation, presentation, and timing matter more now than they did during the frenzy years. Staging, light updates, and strategic pricing will do a lot of the heavy lifting. The good news is that you are still operating in a market that is near all-time highs for Seattle home prices. You just need to make sure you give buyers plenty of reasons to love your home.

If your home shows well and solves the right set of problems for the right buyer, it can still sell very successfully, even in a “timid” market.

Curious What This Market Means for You? Let’s Talk Strategy.

Seattle isn’t behaving the way national headlines suggest. And whether you’re buying or selling, your outcome in 2025 will come down to one thing: having a plan that matches the actual conditions on the ground.

If you’re buying, let’s map out the neighborhoods, timelines, and financing options that will put you ahead of the spring surge.
If you’re selling, we’ll show you exactly what to improve, what to skip, and how to position your home so it outperforms the competition.

A little planning now can save (or earn) you a meaningful amount by midsummer. If you want to talk through your next step, Matt and I are here when you’re ready.

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Just for fun, here is the seasonal inflation data from pre-financial crisis to now. Excepting a literal housing market bust–which will not happen again in the foreseeable future–we see a minimum 10% seasonal jump every single year.

About the Author: Ryan Palardy

Ryan Palardy is a Real Estate Broker & Attorney who helps buyers and sellers move through Seattle’s housing market with strategy, confidence, and a clear understanding of what truly drives value. As part of the Get Happy at Home team, he brings the weight of more than 25 years of combined experience, $600 million in closed sales, and the trust of 1,300+ clients across Seattle and the Eastside.

Ryan’s work centers on first-time buyers, out-of-area relocations, tech employees, and homeowners preparing for a pre-sale remodel. He and the Get Happy at Home team were named the Best Real Estate Team in the Seattle Times “Best in the Pacific Northwest” awards for 2025, and are known for consistently delivering top-of-market results for their sellers. The team has earned hundreds of five-star reviews across every major platform—reflecting a long-standing commitment to candor, preparation, and client advocacy.

Before real estate, Ryan practiced law in Washington after earning his J.D. from the University of Washington and receiving his WSBA license in 2018. That background shows up in the way he structures deals, spots risks early, and protects his clients’ interests. Ryan lives in Northwest Seattle with his family.

If you’re exploring a move, planning ahead, or want a clearer read on your options, you can reach Ryan directly—or connect on LinkedIn for ongoing Seattle market insights.

License info: Licensed Real Estate Broker in WA, License #21024995. Office: Seattle, WA.