Kirkland and Bellevue Housing Market, October 2026: What Sellers Should Expect Through Spring 2027

Oct 2, 2026 · @Ryan Palardy

Written by Ryan Palardy, JD, Washington attorney and licensed real estate broker, co-principal of Get Happy at Home at Compass, voted #1 Real Estate Team in the PNW in the Seattle Times Best in the PNW 2026 awards. Every figure below is our own analysis of Northwest Multiple Listing Service data, not a repackaged national headline.

The short answer. Kirkland and Bellevue are buyer’s markets going into 2027. Both cities hold 4.7 months of inventory, the highest in our data since 2016. Like for like, a Kirkland house now sells for about 8.5 percent less than it did last summer and a Bellevue house for about 10.6 percent less, even though Bellevue’s median price looks unchanged. Showings per listing are under five, down from 11 or 12 two years ago. About one in eight houses listed in 2025 never sold at all. With mortgage rates likely to sit in the mid 7s, we expect prices flat to modestly lower through the winter and a modest lift in the first quarter, which makes late January through March the window we would target.

If you own a home in Kirkland or Bellevue and you’re thinking about selling in the next six months, here’s the short version. You can sell. You just can’t sell the way your neighbor did in 2022, or even in 2024. Buyers have more choices than they’ve had in at least a decade, fewer of them are touring, and mortgage rates aren’t coming to the rescue.

A quick word on who this is for. Everything below is about single-family homes in Kirkland and Bellevue, written for owners weighing a sale in the next six months. If you’re on the other side and shopping for a house in either city, the same numbers describe the leverage you’re walking in with.

How is the Kirkland and Bellevue housing market doing right now?

Both cities are sitting on 4.7 months of inventory. That’s the highest reading in our data, which goes back to January 2016. Two years ago it was about a month and a half.

Read those two top rows together. Supply is up roughly 50 to 60 percent from last fall, while the number of buyers walking through each listing is down by a quarter to a third. In September 2024, a typical Eastside listing was getting 11 or 12 showings. Now it’s getting fewer than five.

Prices have followed. Kirkland’s median is down 11 percent from a year ago. Bellevue’s median looks flat at $1.7 million, but don’t take comfort in that. The average Bellevue sale price is down more than 9 percent, and as you’ll see below, every size category in Bellevue is selling for less than it did last year. The flat median is a quirk of which homes happened to sell.

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service data via InfoSparks, pulled October 2, 2026. Previously owned single-family homes, rolling three-month figures.

There’s one more number that never shows up in a price chart: the share of homes that simply don’t sell. Of the Kirkland houses that first listed in 2025, about 13 percent never found a buyer. In Bellevue it was 11 percent. Two years earlier both were closer to 5 percent. A listing that doesn’t sell gets withdrawn or expires, so it never enters the median at all. That’s part of why the price figures above feel gentler than the market looks from the inside.

Failure figures are Get Happy at Home’s analysis of NWMLS listing records, resolved to the property so a home that was pulled and relisted counts once rather than twice.

Has my home lost value, or did the median just shift?

A median only tells you about the homes that happened to sell. If more small homes close this year than last, the median drops even if no single home lost a dollar of value. If more big homes close, the median can hold steady while every home on your street is worth less.

So we run a second number. It compares like for like across every sale: same finished square footage, same lot, same age, same bedrooms and baths, same condition, same zip code. We call it the same-house read. It answers the question sellers care about: what would the same home sell for today versus a year ago?

In Kirkland, the median slightly overstates the drop. In Bellevue, it hides the drop completely. The Bellevue median hasn’t moved, yet a comparable Bellevue home sells for about 10 percent less than it did last summer.

In dollars: a Bellevue home that sold for $1.7 million last summer is about a $1.52 million home today. A Kirkland home that sold for $1.5 million is about $1.37 million. These are estimates, good to within a few points either way, but the direction is not in doubt.

The most recent quarter is also weaker than the full-year picture. Over the last 12 months, the same-house decline is 7.8 percent in Kirkland and 6.8 percent in Bellevue.

If you bought or last valued your home off 2025 numbers, this is the adjustment to make before you pick a list price.

Same-house figures are Get Happy at Home’s analysis of NWMLS resale house sales inside Kirkland and Bellevue city limits, closed July 1 to September 23, 2026, compared with the same dates in 2025 (359 Kirkland sales, 449 Bellevue sales). Kirkland covers zip codes 98033 and 98034. Bellevue covers 98004, 98005, 98006, 98007 and 98008.

Are larger Kirkland and Bellevue homes holding their value?

Here are median prices by home size.

Not one of the eight cells is up. On medians alone, it looks like the biggest homes are holding. The same-house read says otherwise, at least in Bellevue: like for like, Bellevue homes over 2,500 square feet are down about 10 percent, right in line with the rest of the city. In Kirkland the largest homes are down about 4 percent, which on this few sales is not far enough from flat to call a decline.

A caution: slicing one city by size makes for small samples, so individual numbers bounce around. Don’t read this table as a reason your home is the exception.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop before selling?

Our planning assumption for the next six months: 30-year mortgage rates stay in the mid 7s, moving a quarter point in either direction. Nobody can promise that, us included. But it’s the scenario we think sellers should plan around.

Here’s what that quarter point is worth to your buyer. On a $1.5 million home with 20 percent down, the principal and interest payment is about $8,390 a month at 7.5 percent. At 7.25 it’s about $8,185. At 7.75 it’s about $8,600. That’s a swing of roughly $200 a month either way, or about 2.5 percent of buying power.

REAL TALK: a $200 change in the payment does not bring a wave of new buyers off the sidelines. If your plan is to hold out for a rate drop that sends prices back up, the next six months are unlikely to deliver it. The buyers you’ll meet this winter and spring are the buyers who’ve already made peace with 7 percent money. They are careful, they have options, and they know it.

What will the market do between October 2026 and March 2027?

October to December: less competition, fewer buyers, softer prices. Inventory falls every winter as listings sell, expire, or get pulled for the holidays. In every year of our data, months of supply in both cities dropped between September and January, usually by about half. Last year Kirkland went from 3.2 months to 1.5. If that pattern holds, we’d start 2027 somewhere in the low-to-mid 2s. Better than today, but still the most January inventory either city has had in our data.

Fewer listings does not mean higher prices, though. Since rates jumped in 2022, Bellevue’s median price has slipped between September and January in all four winters. Kirkland’s has slipped in three of four, including an 11.8 percent drop last winter. Showings are usually at their slowest in the fourth quarter. If you’re on the market now, the buyers still looking in November are serious, but there aren’t many of them.

January to March: the best window, but a smaller one than you remember. Showings per listing have climbed from December into the first quarter in almost every year of our data. That’s the upside of listing early in the year: buyer activity picks up before the spring listings arrive. Last year, Kirkland supply was 1.5 months in January, 3.2 by April, and 4.4 by June. Sellers who listed in February faced a very different market than sellers who waited for the tulips.

The catch is that the early-year bump keeps shrinking. Kirkland showings rose from 12.3 per listing to 20.6 in the winter of 2023 to 2024. The next winter, 10.9 to 14.8. Last winter, 6.5 to 7.2. We expect a bump again in early 2027. We don’t expect a frenzy.

Our read on prices. With rates stuck and supply this high, we think Eastside prices are flat to modestly lower through the winter, with a small seasonal lift in the first quarter. A return to 2025 pricing by spring would take something our rate assumption rules out.

How should I price and prepare my home?

1. Price to today’s comps, not last year’s. With nearly five months of inventory, buyers compare your home against plenty of others. A home that’s priced where the market was in 2025 sits, and a listing that sits collects price reductions. The first two weeks matter more than ever when you’re only getting a handful of showings.
2. Make every showing count. At fewer than five showings per listing, you can’t afford to lose a buyer to a leaky faucet or a dated light fixture. This is where our construction background earns its keep. We’ll tell you which fixes pay you back, what they should cost, and which ones to skip.
3. Inspect before you list. Careful buyers with options walk away from surprises. Finding the roof, sewer, or electrical issue first lets you fix it or price it on your terms, not in the middle of a negotiation.
4. Expect to negotiate. Contingencies, repair requests, and closing cost credits are back. A credit toward a buyer’s rate buydown can do more for their monthly payment than the same dollars off the price. Budget for it up front.
5. Pick your window on purpose. If you need to sell now, sell now, and price for a thin buyer pool. If you have flexibility, the data points to listing between late January and March, before spring inventory piles up. Last year, waiting for May meant competing with more than double the inventory.
6. Don’t lean on the median. A flat headline number does not mean your home held its value, and a big home is not exempt. Before you set a price, ask what a home like yours, in your zip code, sells for now versus a year ago.

Common questions from Kirkland and Bellevue sellers

Is now a bad time to sell a house in Kirkland or Bellevue?

It is a harder market, not a closed one. Homes are still selling: 184 in Kirkland and 193 in Bellevue closed between July 1 and September 23, 2026. They take longer, draw fewer showings, and close below their original asking price about two thirds of the time. Priced to current comps and properly prepared, a home sells.

How much have Kirkland and Bellevue home prices dropped in 2026?

Like for like, about 8.5 percent in Kirkland and 10.6 percent in Bellevue versus last summer. Measured over the full 12 months, 7.8 percent and 6.8 percent. Kirkland’s median is down 11.4 percent and Bellevue’s median is unchanged, but those gaps are mix effects, not differences in value.

Should I wait until spring 2027 to list?

If you have flexibility, we would target late January through March rather than May. Showings per listing climb out of their fourth-quarter low into the first quarter in almost every year of our data, and spring brings a wave of competing inventory. Last year Kirkland went from 1.5 months of supply in January to 4.4 months by June.

Will falling mortgage rates bring prices back up?

Not meaningfully, and not within six months. A quarter-point move is worth roughly $200 a month on a $1.5 million purchase with 20 percent down, about 2.5 percent of buying power. That does not change what a careful buyer will pay for your house.

Why does Bellevue’s median sale price look flat when prices are down?

A median only describes the homes that happened to sell. Bellevue’s mix shifted toward larger homes, holding the median at $1.7 million while comparable homes lost about 10 percent. The average sale price, which responds more to the mix, fell 9.5 percent over the same stretch.

What are the odds my house does not sell at all?

Higher than they were. About 13 percent of Kirkland houses and 11 percent of Bellevue houses that first listed in 2025 never found a buyer, against roughly 5 percent two years earlier. We treat that as the strongest argument for pricing to current comps from day one rather than testing a number and chasing the market down.

If you own a condo or an attached townhome, none of the above is your market. Condos and attached townhomes trade on their own dynamics, and right now a harder set of them. Prices among the units that sold have held up a little better than houses, but more than half of condo listings in both cities did not sell at all, and roughly one in four condos first listed in 2025 never found a buyer, against about one in eight houses. Attached townhomes have had the roughest run of any category we track. Ask us for that read instead of applying this one.

Thinking about selling in Kirkland or Bellevue? Let us take you to coffee.

Every number above is a citywide figure. Houghton, Bridle Trails, Finn Hill, Somerset, West Bellevue and Lake Hills are not one market, and your street, lot and floor plan will have their own story. We’re happy to spend 20 minutes walking you through what we’re seeing in your specific neighborhood, what your home needs before it hits the market, and whether your timing makes sense. No follow-up unless you want one.

Get Happy at Home at Compass, 501 E Pike St Suite 200A, Seattle, WA 98122. Call or text 206-353-0169, or email team@gethappyathome.com.

More on these markets: Kirkland homes for sale and East Bellevue homes for sale.