Seattle Grew by 6,800 People Last Year. Most of the People Who “Left” Moved 25 Miles.

By the Get Happy at Home Group at Compass | September 2026

Why it feels true

The signs are everywhere. Tech layoffs keep making headlines. Amazon cut jobs. Software engineering postings have fallen off a cliff. Friends keep announcing moves to Phoenix or Boise. Redfin ranks Seattle second in the country for home shoppers searching to leave, behind only New York. For-sale signs sit longer than they used to, and inventory is the highest we have seen in years.

Put all of that together and “everyone’s leaving Seattle” feels obvious.

So we went looking for the number that proves it. It isn’t there. Here is what the data actually says.

Fact 1: Seattle is still growing

Washington’s Office of Financial Management puts Seattle at 823,400 people as of April 1, 2026, up 6,800 from the year before. That is the largest numeric gain of any city in the state. King County added 13,000 people and now sits at 2,424,700.

Not a single official count shows Seattle shrinking. Growth slowed. It did not reverse.

Fact 2: More people do leave for other states than arrive from them

Both things are true at the same time, and this is where most of the confusion starts.

In the year ending July 2025, King County lost about 9,100 residents to the rest of the country. Over the same stretch it gained roughly 28,400 people from abroad, plus about 7,400 more births than deaths. Net result: a gain of roughly 27,000 people.

Every “Seattle is booming” headline and every “Seattle exodus” headline is quoting a different line of the same table.

Fact 3: What changed was arrivals, not departures

Seattle added about 18,000 people in 2025 and 6,800 in 2026. On a chart, that drop looks like a wave of people heading for the exits. It isn’t.

Ninety percent of all 3,144 U.S. counties saw international migration fall in the year ending July 2025. California’s dropped from 312,761 to 109,278. Seattle’s slowdown is a national immigration story showing up in a local data set. Departures barely moved.

Fact 4: Most people “leaving Seattle” move about 25 miles

IRS county-to-county migration data shows roughly a third of King County movers stayed right here in the Puget Sound region, with about 17% landing in Snohomish County and 15% in Pierce. Net, Pierce picked up about 6,700 King County residents and Snohomish about 6,200.

They didn’t leave the region. They bought more house farther out, and most of them kept their jobs here.

Fact 5: The money is leaving faster than the people

Here’s the number almost nobody quotes. In a single year, roughly $8.7 billion in adjusted gross income moved out of King County and roughly $6.7 billion moved in. Net loss: about $2 billion, on a headcount that came close to breaking even.

The households leaving earn more than the households arriving. That is an affordability story, not an abandonment story, and it may be the most useful line on this page if you are pricing a home right now.

Three things that don’t hold up

Crime. Seattle crime fell 18% in 2025. Homicides dropped from 58 to 37, the lowest count since before the pandemic, with an 86% clearance rate. Stolen vehicles fell 24% and burglaries 18%. Crime fell again through the first half of 2026.

Downtown. August 2026 brought 9.2 million visits downtown, 12% above August 2019 and the busiest month in more than seven years. Hotel rooms sold ran 6% above 2019.

Collapsing rents. Average asking rent sits at $2,048, up about 1% year over year, with vacancy improving to 6.7% and more than 19,000 units under construction. Flat, not falling.

What this means if you’re buying or selling here

King County’s median sale price is $845,000, down 3.4% from a year ago. Active listings are up 30%. Supply sits at 4.3 months, up from 2.9 last August. Closed sales are down 13.6%.

Read that next to the migration data and the picture gets clear fast.

If you’re buying, the trade that used to require leaving the region, more space for less money, is now possible inside it. You have inspection contingencies, negotiating room and time to think, none of which existed in 2021.

If you’re selling, you are competing against real inventory for the first time since the pandemic. Your buyers have options within 25 miles in every direction, and they are using them. Pricing to last spring’s comp instead of today’s market is the fastest way to sit.

Nobody is leaving Seattle. People are leaving Seattle proper, and a lot of them are landing 25 miles away. That means your buyer pool and your competition both look different than they did a year ago.

Let’s talk about your block, not the county

Thinking about buying or selling in Seattle or on the Eastside this fall? This is a market where the headlines and the data are pulling in opposite directions, and strategy is doing more work than it has in years.

We’d love to walk you through what this actually looks like for your neighborhood, your timeline and your number. Reach out to the Get Happy at Home team and we’ll build you a picture of your block, not just the county.

Sources

• Washington State Office of Financial Management, April 1, 2026 Population Estimates
• U.S. Census Bureau, County Population Totals and Components of Change, Vintage 2025
• U.S. Census Bureau, Net International Migration Declined in 90% of Counties
• Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats County-to-County Migration Data
• Redfin, Q1 2026 Migration Report
• Seattle Police Department, 2025 Year in Review
• Downtown Seattle Association, Downtown Dashboard, August 2026
• Kidder Mathews, Seattle Multifamily Market Report, Q2 2026
• Northwest Multiple Listing Service, August 2026 Market Snapshot