So here we are at the end of April. I love April because this is the time of the year the market reveals itself to me. In other words, there is enough data to see how we are looking for the year. On the back of so much weird, and hyperbolic news about our market, I have good news and bad news about the market… Let’s start with the bad so we can end on the good. ?
THE BAD NEWS
Well, our market did indeed decline. June 2018 now represents a peak. Citywide, Seattle had a median home price of $750,000 in June of 2018. Never has it been higher… The low point of the market (alluding to the good news) was January 2019; the median home price had fallen to $640,000. For those doing the math, that is a 15% decline for a round number.
Now, to put that in a little more context: The market had risen dramatically starting December 2017 to June 2018 by 12%. Last year there was a lot of uncertainty amid this dramatic rise in home prices, including 1.) Interest rates went from 3.75% to nearly 5% in the span of a few months. (Needless to say, our buyers were a bit shocked) 2.) Amazon H2Q’s effect on Seattle was weighing on people’s minds, especially after the head tax ordeal.
THE GOOD NEWS
It would appear our market is already in recovery. I’m going to pin that on H2Q being settled and interest rates having fallen back to 4.5% or 4% for a 10 year ARM. On approval of credit of course. So home prices have actually increased from January to March by 8%, standing at $688,375. I did a quick look of the homes closed and pending for this month so far (as of April 19) and it looks like we might hit a median price of $700,000 potentially. We’ve still got almost two weeks so we will see, but that would be the fourth month of increasing home values. Median days on market also fell considerably from January (which was 35 days). Now, we are back down to a brisk 13 days. Not 7 days as it once was, but still quick as cash almost.
Here is a graph showing the median Seattle home price over the last 3 years.
I wish the media would cover this stuff as much as they covered the decline. But I’ve not really heard a peep. Good news must not sell papers? Anyway, I thought the rest of you could use the good news. Even if it starts out kind of iffy. ?